Radar 4

Regulation and Policy Shift Strategic Signals

A circular diagram with four quadrants describing regulatory and market trends affecting technology and compliance over time: 0-18 months, 18-36 months, and 3-5 years. It includes points about licensing, taxes, audits, rulemaking, data breaches, governance, and export controls.

Where permission, constraint and market rules are shifting — and why it matters strategically.

Scope: global policy signals, with emphasis on Europe, North America and selected high-impact APAC developments. Signals reflect policy moves with market-level impact, including new compliance regimes, enforcement shifts and rule changes that alter incentives, cost structures and competitive dynamics.

Coverage window: December 2025 – February 2026.

Example signals reflected in this radar

  • EU AI Act sandboxes and readiness focus European Commission and standards bodies

  • US federal AI pre emption proposals and state level governance moves including California

  • EU carbon border mechanism expansion and carbon pricing timelines

  • Thailand climate bill and Malaysia incentives ahead of carbon tax

  • Export controls affecting advanced AI chips to China

  • FinCEN real estate anti money laundering rules and CME Treasuries clearing approval

  • Hong Kong moves toward mandatory breach notification and evolving US state privacy laws

  • China enforcement against fake AI services and emerging military AI governance norms

This radar synthesises policy signals to show where permission to operate is expanding or contracting — and where regulatory direction of travel will force investment redesign or strategic repositioning.